Changing consumer priorities and ambitious EV production targets from automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) mean that the shift to EVs is happening sooner than most analysts had initially forecast, according to EY Knowledge.

In 2019, fully electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) accounted for just 2.9% of European vehicle sales, according to industry analysts LMC Automotive. This had increased to 13.2% as of 2021. By 2035, EVs are forecast to account for around half of all vehicles in operation (referred to as vehicle parc) in major European markets. EY Knowledge predicts that BEVs and PHEVs will -respectively- account for 52% and  49% of the vehicle parc in the UK and Germany.

As the total vehicle parc in Europe shifts toward EVs, gas stations will need to be replaced with a private and public charging network. Early EV adopters are likely to be high earners able to plug in at home in their driveway or garage. But for all drivers to make the switch from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, significant public infrastructure is needed to support those who lack access to off-street parking.

In Germany, the automotive agency ICC estimates that the number of EV owners with access to home charging will drop from 80% in 2018 to 72% in 2030. EV owners in more densely populated countries are even less likely to have access to home charging. The paradox of whether EV adoption follows charging infrastructure upgrades, or vice versa, has largely been answered – strong charging infrastructure is required to give consumers confidence to make an EV purchase. The 2021 EY Mobility Consumer Index, a survey with 9,000 respondents, highlighted a lack of charging stations as a key reason behind reluctance to purchase an EV – this was second only to the up-front cost of buying an EV.